RESEARCH
Research & Publications
Statistical methodology, econometrics, model comparison and applications
My research combines methodological questions in statistics with computational methods and applications in econometrics and scientific data analysis. Current work focuses on model comparison, robustness, statistical inference and methods for cosmological data.
RESEARCH AREAS
Methodological and applied research
My research is organised around four connected areas, from statistical methodology to scientific and econometric applications.
Statistical Methodology, Model Selection & Robustness
Statistical inference, information criteria, model comparison, misspecification, robustness and sensitivity to structural assumptions.
Econometrics & Time Series
Dynamic modelling, forecasting, long-run relationships, panel and empirical quantitative methods, with emphasis on specification and predictive evaluation.
Computational & Reproducible Statistics
Simulation, numerical experiments, computational validation, diagnostics and transparent reproducible research workflows.
Statistical Methods for Cosmology
Model comparison, inference, robustness, diagnostics and the assessment and combination of evidence across cosmological experiments.
SELECTED RESEARCH PROJECTS
Research across statistical methodology and applications
POSTDOCTORAL RESEARCH · INFN FERRARA · CALL 28504/2026
Development of advanced statistical tools for analysis and interpretation of cosmological data
Statistical methodology for cosmological data, with emphasis on model comparison, robust inference, diagnostics and the assessment and combination of evidence across experiments.
2026–present · CosmoFe · INFN Ferrara →
INDEPENDENT RESEARCH
Energy Fundamentals, Uncertainty and Forecastability in European Electricity Markets
Econometric analysis of electricity-market dynamics, fuel-price transmission, uncertainty and forecastability using long-run and short-run models, structural stability analysis and predictive evaluation.
Current research
RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP · UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA
Dynamic modelling and statistical analysis of Italian football league data
Statistical and econometric modelling of football data, including dynamic structures, strategic effects, state-dependent event streams and robust model selection.
2023–2025
DOCTORAL RESEARCH · UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA
Model selection and the vectorial Misspecification-Resistant Information Criterion in multivariate time series
Research on model selection under misspecification, prediction risk and information criteria for multivariate time-series models.
Doctoral research · 2018–2022
PUBLICATIONS & MANUSCRIPTS
Research outputs
Journal Articles
2026
Strategic Play and Home Advantage: Coaches’ Tactical Impact in Serie A
Refereed Conference Proceedings
2021
On the asymptotic mean-squared prediction error for multivariate time series
Manuscripts Under Review and Revision
2026
Robust model selection for generalized linear models with an application to state-dependent event stream football data
2026
Between Flow and Satiation: The Temporal Impact of Emotions in Online Video Gamers’ Reviews on Daily Active Players
2025
The Vectorial Misspecification-Resistant Information Criterion
Working Papers
2026
Projection and Calibration under Misspecification in Linear Covariance Models
2026
Toward robust penalized semiparametric state-dependent varying-coefficient logistic models for football in-play prediction
2022
Model Selection via Information and Prediction Criteria: A Survey
Earlier Research
2017
Beyond Institutional Transfer: Routines and Evolutionary Change in a Plural Economy
2017
Monetary Transmission in Peru: A Structured Vector Autoregressive Approach
SELECTED RESEARCH PRESENTATIONS
Conference presentations and research seminars
Selected presentations delivered as speaker on statistical methodology, time series and sport analytics.
Conference Presentations
2025
Robust model selection for logistic regression with an application to sport analytics
International Conference on Robust Statistics (ICORS) · Joint Research Centre of the European Commission · Stresa
2023
On Home Advantage with In-Game Variables from Commentary Data in the Italian Serie A
EAI Intetain · IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca
2022
A Multivariate Extension of the Misspecification-Resistant Information Criterion
3rd Italian Workshop of Econometrics and Empirical Economics (IWEEE) · Rimini
2021
On the asymptotic mean-squared prediction error for multivariate time series
50th Scientific Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society · Pisa
Research Seminars
2025
Robust model selection for generalized linear models with an application to state-dependent sequential football data
Data Crunch Seminar Series · Faculty of Economics and Management · Free University of Bozen–Bolzano
2021
The Vectorial Misspecification-Resistant Information Criterion and Model Selection with Multivariate Time Series
Department of Statistical Sciences “Paolo Fortunati” · University of Bologna
2019
Model Selection with Nonparametric Methods for Nonlinear Time Series
Department of Economics · Universidad Nacional de Cuyo · Mendoza, Argentina
SELECTED SEMINARS & OUTREACH
Academic seminars and public engagement
Earlier seminars and outreach activities spanning economics, institutions and public-facing academic communication.
PUBLIC OUTREACH · 2021
Elements for the Study of Corruption in the Contemporary Age
Elementi per lo studio della corruzione in età contemporanea
Educational outreach on historical and contemporary perspectives on corruption.
ACADEMIC SEMINAR · UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA · 2019
Economic Crises: Structural Mechanisms and Institutional Conditions
With Roberto Scazzieri
Economic crises, institutional structures, structural dynamics and economic dualism.
ACADEMIC SEMINAR · UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA · 2017
An Introduction to Game Theory: Conflicts and Institutions
Game theory and strategic interaction, with applications to conflict and institutional analysis.
ACADEMIC / PUBLIC SEMINAR · BOLOGNA · 2016
The “Economic Miracle” of the Fujimori Government (1990–2000)
Economic stabilization, structural reform, institutions, inequality and the political economy of Peru.
RESEARCH ENQUIRIES & COLLABORATIONS
Research questions and collaborations
For research-related enquiries, potential collaborations or questions about my methodological and applied work, feel free to get in touch.